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8月31日 Küresel Güçlerin Midesinde DevrialemKüresel güçlerle ezilmeden işbirliğiYiğit BulutReferans, 30.08.2008
8月30日 Naber SalaklarNe büyük iş dünyamız varmışYiğit BulutReferans, 28.08.2008
İlik Bankaları ve Kan Kanseri
Atardamardakiler Bitti Sıra KılcallardaSanayicinin kur isyanı büyüyor Hürriyet, 30.08.2008 El Zaferiye30 Ağustos
Yılmaz Özdil Hürriyet, 30.08.2008
Bizim Temel trene binmiş. Bi de bakmış ki... Bi Alman, bi İngiliz, bi Yunan. "Gene mi siz lan!" demiş. * 30 Ağustos fıkrasıdır bu. * Her Zafer Bayramı hipodroma doluşup, tankları mankları geçirerek, memleket topraklarına göz dikenleri o biçim kovduğumuzu birbirimize gösteriyoruz... Adamlar tribünde bu arada! Ne banka bıraktılar, ne liman... "Bravo valla" diyorlar... "Şahane kovdunuz bizi!" Vıjj diye geçen jetleri alkışlıyorlar. * Bakın, hazır, memleket topraklarına göz dikenleri o biçim kovduğumuzu birbirimize göstereceğimiz gün... Bi şey anlatayım size. * Suudi Arabistan Tarım Bakanı Fahad Balghunaim denen arkadaş, arazi bakmak için GAP’a geldi geçen hafta... Bizim Tarım Bakanı gezdirdi. "İşbirliği" yapacakmışız... * Suudi Arabistan Tarım Bakanı Yardımcısı da, Financial Times’a demeç verdi... Kendi memleketlerinde su olmadığı için, "buğday, pirinç, mısır gibi stratejik gıda ürünlerini yetiştirmek amacıyla, Pakistan ve Türkiye’de 100 bin hektarcık arazi ayarlayacaklarını" söyledi. * Haliyle, merak ediyor insan... Kendi kendimize yetiştirip, Suudilere ihraç etmek varken, neden "işbirliği" yapıyoruz? Veya... Arabistan’a yetecek kadar bile tarım arazimiz varsa, neden elálemden tarım ürünleri ithal ediyoruz? Suyu yok diye buraya geliyorsa Arap... Niye petrol kuyusu vermiyor bize orada? * Neyse canım, boşverin... 30 Ağustos kutlu olsun. Bizim Temel trene binmiş. Bi de bakmış ki, bi Arap... 8月29日 Halk Oyulmalarda (DALYA ve SALYA Sonrası)TCMB
22.08.2008
TARİH TOPLAM TÜKETİCİ KREDİ KARTI TAKSİTLİ TAKSİTSİZ
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110678240.00000 78840816.00000 31837424.00000 11901545.00000 19123447.00000 08-08-2008 111106403.00000 79322976.00000 31783427.00000 11860525.00000 19124856.00000 15-08-2008 111613656.00000 79416224.00000 32197432.00000 11862658.00000 19548507.00000 22-08-2008 111789680.00000 79997909.00000 31791771.00000 11847435.00000 19159914.00000 SEÇİLEN SERİLERİN AÇIKLAMALARI ============================== TP.KM.J001: 1-TUKETICI KREDILERI VE KREDI KARTLARI TP.KM.J003: 3-TUKETICI KREDILERI YTL Not: 27.04.2007 Tarihinde gözlenen artış bir bankanın tüketici kredilerinin kapsamında yaptığı 442 442 BİN YTL tutarındaki değişiklikten kaynaklanmaktadır. TP.KM.J011: 5-KREDI KARTLARI (Bireysel+Kurumsal) TP.KM.J016: 6Aa-Taksitli TP.KM.J017: 6Ab-Taksitsiz 8月28日 Cenaze İşleri FaturasıRusya’yı rahatsız edemeyiz
Güngör Uras Milliyet, 28.08.2008 Rusya sınır kapılarında bekleyen Türk TIR’larının sayısı (Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi Başkanı’nın verdiği rakamlara göre) 10 bini aşmış. Rusya, 16 Temmuz’dan bu yana Türk mallarının Rusya’ya girişini engelliyor. 8月27日 Hangi Ülke İçerdiniz?Du yu andırsitend?
Yılmaz Özdil Hürriyet, 27.08.2008
AKP’li belediyenin zabıtaları Keçiören’de içki satan gariban büfeciyi sopayla dövdüler ya... Amerikan Büyükelçiliği anında soruşturma başlattı. * Bazı salak arkadaşlar da sevindi... "Büfeciye Amerikalılar sahip çıktı!" * Kardeşim! Tekel bayii orası... Tekel, British American! Yeni Rakı satılıyor orada... Yeni Rakı, Amerikalı! Marlboro. Camel. Parliament zaten malum da... Samsun, British American. Maltepe, British American. Viski satılıyor... Johnnie Walker, İskoç. Jameson, İrlanda. Jack Daniel’s, Amerikan. Absolut da satılıyor... İsveç votkası. Güzel güzel biralar var... Miller, Amerikan. Beck’s, Alman. Corona, Meksika. Carlsberg, Danimarka. Heineken, Hollanda. Budweiser, Belçika. Foster’s, Avustralya. Efes Pilsen, Coca Cola ortaklı. Coca Cola, Amerikan... * O büfede, Türk olan sadece büfeci! * Coni malını koruyor, malını... Onun için soruşturma açıyor. Yoksa, eli sopalı dinciler, gariban büfecinin burnunu kırmış, ona ne? * Üstelik... Sen ne malına sahip çıkıyorsun, ne insanına... Dinciler büfeciyi yamultmuş, Amerikalılar soruşturma açmış, sana ne? AF Parti ve DarbeNasıl AK olunur?..
Bekir Coşkun Hürriyet, 27.08.2008
BU arkadaşların iyi bir huyu var; birbirlerini affediyorlar. Cumhurbaşkanı Erbakan’ı affediyor, Maliye Bakanı Cumhurbaşkanı’nı affediyor, Başbakan Maliye Bakanı’nı affediyor... Gensoru veriliyor, bu sefer Meclis, Başbakan’ı affediyor... Milletvekillerinin 79 suç dosyası var, Başbakan dokunulmazlıkları kaldırmayarak dönüp milletvekillerini affediyor... Böylece herkes herkesi affettiği için partinin adı ne oluyor: AK Parti... Görülmüş bir şey yok. Diyelim ki Ankara Adliyesi’ndeki iki sanık koridordaki bankta oturmuş yargılanmayı beklerken, içlerinden birisi "Sana bir şey söyleyeyim mi, gel ben seni affedeyim" diyor. Öbürü seviniyor: "Olur mu?.." "Tabii ki olur, işte affettim gitti... Şimdi sen de beni affet..." O da affediyor... Ve birlikte çıkıp gidiyorlar ak-pak... Olabilir mi?.. * Yoksul-güçsüz insanların dünyasında olmaz... Değil resmi evrakta sahtecilik, zimmet, dolandırıcılık, ihaleye fesat karıştırmak... Trafik cezası olanlar sürüm sürüm sürünürler. Devlet yakalarına yapışır da bırakmaz. Ama devleti yöneten, iktidarı eline geçirmiş, güçlü ve egemen devlet adamları yaptıklarında bal gibi oluyor. İşin daha ilginç yanı; birbirlerini affettikleri gibi, kendi kendilerini affetme yetenekleri de var: Cumhurbaşkanı Abdullah Gül, aynı suçu işlediği için Erbakan’ı affederken otomatik olarak kendi kendini de affediyor... Cumhurbaşkanı’nı kurtaran Maliye Bakanı otomatikman kendisi de kurtulmuş oluyor... Başbakan dokunulmazlıkları muhafaza ederek milletvekillerini kurtarırken, kendisi de ne oluyor?.. Kurtuluyor... * Pekiiii... Seçim geldiğinde tüm bu rezaleti affeden kim?.. Nohutçu ile kömürcü... Nohutla kömürü alıp, hepsini kökten affediyorlar ve bu döngü sürüp gidiyor. Öbürleri trilyonları alıyor, bunlara da nohut ile kömür düşüyor... Böylece her şeyimiz ne oluyor?.. AK oluyor... 8月26日 Kemalizm Yeniden'Kemalizm Türkiye'yi batırmış'Yiğit Bulut
8月20日 Uçurum CanavarıPolitika otobanında durum...
Bekir Coşkun Hürriyet, 20.08.2008
EN sağ şeritte seyreden AKP İtikat Turizm ve Seyahat AŞ’nin trafikten men edilme olasılığı ortadan kalktıktan sonra yol açık. Ve bizim politika otobanındaki kısmi tıkanıklık normale döndü sayılır. Geri geri gittiği belli olmasın diye yolcuların ters oturtulduğu AKP İtikat Turizm ve Seyahat AŞ’nin şoförü Tayyip Kaptan ile çıkıp yukarı yazıhanede oturan Abdullah Gül Usta sizi götürebildikleri kadar götürecekler artık. Cümleten hayırlı yolculuklar... * Mazot parasını yediği için trafikten men edilen ve düne kadar garaj hapsinde bulunan Cennet Nakliyat Kargo’nun kaptanı Necmettin Usta’yı saymazsak... Kaporta boyada olan ANAVATAN Turizm, ya da Ağar yükten dolayı şanzıman dağıtan Doğru Yol Sevkiyat’ı hesaba katmazsak... Sağ şeritte geriye MHP Çekme ve Kurtarma Servisi kalıyor. Ki AKP İtikat Turizm ve Seyahat AŞ yolda kaldıkça çekip kurtarsın. Sol şerit?... Sol şerit boş... Burada da Murat Karayalçın’ın kaykayını ya da Ufuk Uras’ın tek kişilik pizza-hut motosikletini hesaba katmazsak, ne kalıyor geriye... Ce Ha Pe körüklü halk otobüsü... Ancak iktidara varma açısından Ce Ha Pe Halk körüklüsünün içindekiler ile Deniz Kaptan arasında vites sorunu var. Yolcular, "Hep düşük vites yarım gaz gidiyor, yani aşağı inip koşsak daha hızlı gideriz" görüşündeler. Kaptan ise farkı, "Sivas’ın yollarında" kasedini koyarak kapatmayı deniyor. * Bence "balans ayarı" için tankların bizim politika otobanına çıkma olasılığı da ortadan kalktı sayılır. İlk kez irticai nedenlerle tank personelinden kimsenin atılmadığı YAŞ toplantılarında, sanki tankların da iman kuvvetiyle gidebileceği inancının yerleşmekte olduğu izlenimi... Ve Yaşar Paşa’nın tankı değil de, gri Audi’yi tercih etmesi... Ne bilelim biz... * Kısacası AKP İtikat Turizm ve Seyahat AŞ ile yola devam... Her ne kadar politika otobanındaki Yargıtay Başsavcısı’nın radarına yakalanıp da, Anayasa Mahkemesi’ndeki trafik davasında "otobanda ters istikamette tehlikeli seyirden" mahkûm olsa da... Ne yapabiliriz? Geri geri, iyi yolculuklar... TOKİ ler TaklalardaFannie, Freddie Bailout May Hinge on $223 Billion Debt Rollover By Dawn Kopecki The Bloomberg, Aug 20, 2008 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's success in repaying $223 billion of bonds due by the end of the quarter may determine whether they can avoid a federal bailout. Fannie, based in Washington, has about $120 billion of debt maturing through Sept. 30, while McLean, Virginia-based Freddie has $103 billion, according to figures provided by the government-chartered companies and data compiled by Bloomberg. Rising borrowing costs and evidence that demand for their debt was waning last month led Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to seek the authority to pump unlimited amounts of capital in Fannie and Freddie in an emergency. Their interest costs are again increasing amid concern that credit losses are depleting the capital of the beleaguered mortgage-finance companies. Rolling over the debt ``is the single most important factor to their ability to remain liquid,'' said Moshe Orenbuch, an analyst at Credit Suisse in New York. ``So far, they've been able to do that.'' Investors in Asia, the biggest foreign owner of Fannie's $3 trillion of bonds, are reducing their share of purchases, potentially increasing the need for Paulson to make good on his pledge to backstop the companies. ``This whole backstop mechanism was set up so the actual need for it could be avoided,'' said Mahesh Swaminathan, a mortgage strategist for Credit Suisse in New York. ``The market is testing the Treasury's resolve.'' New Capital The companies, responsible for 42 percent of the U.S. home loan market, need as much as $15 billion each in fresh capital to reserve against losses on mortgages and related securities that they either own or guarantee, Paul Miller, an analyst with Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. in Arlington, Virginia, said. The Treasury will probably be forced to buy as much as $30 billion of preferred shares in both Fannie and Freddie by the end of next month, according to Bill Gross, who manages the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. ``Treasury is monitoring market developments vigilantly. We are focused on encouraging market stability, mortgage availability, and protecting the taxpayers' interests,'' Treasury spokeswoman Jennifer Zuccarelli said. Freddie Mac ``continues to have strong access to the debt markets at attractive spreads,'' spokeswoman Sharon McHale said. Fannie spokesman Brian Faith declined to comment. Losing Faith Investors this week demanded an extra 104 basis points in yield to own Freddie's five-year debt rather than Treasuries of similar maturity, the most since reaching a 10-year high of 114 basis points in March. The gap narrowed to 74 basis points after Paulson's announcement. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Fannie spreads approached a 10-year high of 104 basis points on Aug. 18, from 74 basis points on July 28. In the decade before 2008, the spread averaged 43 basis points. ``The fixed-income markets are starting to lose faith,'' Miller said. JPMorgan Asset Management Japan is reducing its holdings of Fannie and Freddie debt, according to Shinji Kunibe, a senior money manager at the firm in Tokyo. And Yuuki Sakurai, the general manager of financial and investment planning in Tokyo at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co., said his firm is also ``a little bit worried about the fate of'' Fannie and Freddie. ``The conditions don't seem to be turning into a good environment,'' Sakurai said. Fannie fell 14 cents to a 19-year low of $6.01 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange trading yesterday. Freddie is at its lowest level since January 1991, dropping 22 cents yesterday to $4.17. Both have tumbled more than 90 percent in the past year. Highlighting Problems Fannie's market value has shrunk to $6.47 billion and Freddie's declined to $2.7 billion, making it increasingly difficult for the companies to raise equity through public markets, Miller said. The companies have reported a combined $14.9 billion of net losses the past four quarters. After receiving authority last month to inject unlimited capital into Fannie and Freddie, a Treasury spokeswoman this week said Paulson had no plans to use his new power. Initial optimism that Paulson's proposal would bolster confidence in the companies has vanished on concern that the deteriorating housing market may force a bailout, a move that would likely wipe out common shareholders and potentially some preferred stockholders, Miller said. ``It hasn't restored any faith, it just highlighted their problems,'' Miller said. ``The market has come to accept the fact that the government has got to do something.'' Freddie's 5.57 percent perpetual preferred shares are trading at $9.37 to yield 15.3 percent, compared with $17.99 and a yield of 7.77 percent on June 30 before the crisis erupted. Fannie's 5.5 percent preferred shares yield 16.4 percent, up from 7.83 percent on June 30. Roosevelt's Creation Fannie was created as part of Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal in the 1930s and became a publicly owned company in 1968. Freddie was started in 1970 during the Vietnam War, primarily as competition for Fannie. The companies, which own or guarantee about $5 trillion of the $12 trillion of outstanding U.S. home loans, help expand financing to homebuyers by purchasing home loans from lenders and packaging other loans into securities that they then guarantee. The companies, which have a combined $1.7 trillion in outstanding unsecured debt, issue new debt to pay off outstanding obligations as they mature. The companies can also sell securities to raise cash. ``While the plan was extraordinarily aggressive, it seems that the market is looking for something even more explicit and more guidance about what form that will take,'' said Margaret Kerins, the managing director of agency debt strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut. Rising Yields Freddie had $70 billion of cash and non-mortgage investments on June 30 and $470 billion of agency mortgage securities that it could pledge for secured borrowing, the company said Aug. 6. Fannie paid a record high yield in a $3.5 billion sale of three-year benchmark notes last week that drew less demand from Asia. Investors in the region bought 22 percent of the offering, almost half the demand of three months ago and about two-thirds of Asia's usual purchases. ``The 22 percent of Asian participation is worrying,'' said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, the head of fixed-income strategy for Barclays Capital in New York. Freddie's latest auction of short-term notes attracted less interest from investors for the second straight week. Freddie this week said it sold $4 billion of short-term notes in a weekly auction, where investors bid for 2.19 times the amount of three-month securities available, down from 2.73 times last week. The bid-to-cover ratio on the company's six- month securities was 2.42 times, down from 2.92 times, while the ratio on 12-month debt sold was fell to 1.75 times, from 2.50. To contact the reporter on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.net 8月19日 Citi Ever DiesCitibank’ın durumu düzeliyor mu?
Yaman Törüner Milliyet, 19.08.2008 Dünyanın en büyük bankalarından biri sayılan Citibank, son ekonomik krizden en çok etkilenen finansal kurum oldu. “Şehir Hiç Uyumaz (Citi Never Sleeps)” sloganıyla finans piyasalarının öncü kuruluşu haline gelen bankanın yöneticilerinin, son kriz öncesinde biraz kestirdiği anlaşılıyor. Eleştirmenler, Citi’nin en büyük düşmanının kendi içindeki bürokrasi ve bir türlü vazgeçilemeyen kadrolar olduğunu dile getiriyorlar. 8月18日 2008 Hiç YaşanmayacakNeden çağırdık
Fatih Çekirge Hürriyet, 18.08.2008 "İSRAİL haritadan silinmeli" diyen, ABD’yi "şeytanın yönetimi" ilan eden İran Cumhurbaşkanı Ahmedinejad’ı neden çağırdık? Anıtkabir’e gitmedi.
Mustafa Kemal’in kurduğu, medeniyet çizgisinden nefret eden birkaç "kökten şaşkın"ın alkışı üzerine Sultanahmet’te şov yaptı. "Ben olsam yolları kapatmazdım" diyerek bir de gol attı.
Ve gitti... MÜTHİŞ BİR AÇMAZ Şimdi İsrail’den Türkiye’ye soğuk rüzgárlar esiyor. Peki neden böyle bir diplomatik atak başlattık? Neden İsrail’de, ABD’de hatta uluslararası finans çevrelerinde soru işaretleri yaratma pahasına bu daveti yaptık? Ankara’nın derin kulislerinden süzülen bir cevap var.. O da şu: - ABD seçimleri öncesi Bush, İran’a vuruş için gerekli hazırlığı tamamlıyor... Washington’dan Ankara’ya bu yolda bilgiler geliyor. Yani vurdu vuracak... İşte böyle bir ihtimalde Türkiye için müthiş bir açmaz ortaya çıkıyor. Senaryo şöyle: - Eğer vurursa ABD yine Türk hava sahasını kullanmak isteyebilir. Daha keskin bir ambargo talebi gelebilir. Bu durumda Türkiye ne yapacak? İşte soru bu... Türkiye daha önce ABD’ye Irak için sınırlarını açmadı ve ABD ile müthiş bir güven bunalımı yaşadı. Bu durum hükümeti çok zor durumda bırakabilir. İşte böyle bir açmazla karşılaşmamak için hükümet bütün gücüyle "savaşı önlemeye İran’ı iknaya" çalışıyor... - Peki başarabilir mi? - Mümkün gözükmüyor... BU KADAR SAF MIYDI Bu açıdan bakınca Gürcistan savaşı bile farklı bir anlam kazanabilir... Çünkü şu soru hálá ortada: - Saakaşvili neden Rusya’ya karşı böyle bir hareket yaptı? Bu kadar saf olamayacağına göre bu savaşın ardında ne var? Bilinen durum şu: - Ahmedinejad daha önce Ermenistan’a önemli bir ziyaret yapmıştı. Rusya-Ermenistan-İran arasındaki yakınlaşma ABD tarafından dikkatle izleniyor. Özellikle enerji konusunda Bakü-Tiflis-Ceyhan alternatif hattı Rusya ve İran’ı rahatsız ediyor. Çünkü bu hat İsrail başta olmak üzere Akdeniz’e doğru açılacak... Belki de Rusya ABD’nin İran’a vuruş için Türkiye alternatifine karşı Gürcistan üssünü kullanmayı planlıyor olabilir. Rusya Gürcistan’da Rus askeri göstererek, orasının bir "arka bahçe" ya da "İran’a saldırı üssü’ olamayacağı mesajını vermek istedi... Olabilir mi? Evet.. İşte bu yüzden, Türkiye büyük bir "savaş hazırlığı"nın tam ortasında duruyor... Ve eğer Ahmadinejad ikna olmazsa, Türkiye’yi sıcak ve zor günler bekliyor...
8月16日 Halk Oyulmalarda (DALYA ve SALYA Sonrası)TCMB
08.08.2008
TARİH TOPLAM TÜKETİCİ KREDİ KARTI TAKSİTLİ TAKSİTSİZ
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110678240.00000 78840816.00000 31837424.00000 11901545.00000 19123447.00000 08-08-2008 111106403.00000 79322976.00000 31783427.00000 11860525.00000 19124856.00000 SEÇİLEN SERİLERİN AÇIKLAMALARI ============================== TP.KM.J001: 1-TUKETICI KREDILERI VE KREDI KARTLARI TP.KM.J003: 3-TUKETICI KREDILERI YTL Not: 27.04.2007 Tarihinde gözlenen artış bir bankanın tüketici kredilerinin kapsamında yaptığı 442 442 BİN YTL tutarındaki değişiklikten kaynaklanmaktadır. TP.KM.J011: 5-KREDI KARTLARI (Bireysel+Kurumsal) TP.KM.J016: 6Aa-Taksitli TP.KM.J017: 6Ab-Taksitsiz Yangın Isıtır
8月12日 KemendOutside U.S., Credit Cards Tighten Grip
By MARK LANDLER
The New York Times, Aug 9, 2008
ISTANBUL — In Turkey, where borrowing money was until very recently a family affair, being in debt carried a fearful stigma. Some here even likened it to the disgrace that drives people to commit the honor killings that still occur in parts of this society. “People who would kill their sisters or daughters for bringing shame on the family would do anything to avoid being labeled a debtor,” said Nazim Kaya, the president of Consumers Union, an advocacy group that helps those who fall into debt. But in a cultural shift that has swept aside centuries of tradition, credit cards have become commonplace here. Only three decades ago, Turkey had fewer than 10,000 cards; today it has more than 38 million. As the American blessing of credit cards became widespread, so did the American curse of debt. Outstanding card debt here ballooned to nearly $18 billion last year, six times the level five years earlier. Default rates spiked and consumer groups protested sky-high interest charges. Newspapers were filled with stories of desperate card holders killing themselves or others. In 2006, a fierce outcry prompted Turkey to pass a law clamping down on credit card marketers. “We did not listen to our ancestors’ proverb,” Mr. Kaya said. “ ‘Stretch your leg only as far as your blanket.’ ” Few American exports have proved as popular as credit cards. In just a generation, they have gone from a totem of Western affluence to an everyday accessory in Brazil, Mexico, India, China, South Korea and elsewhere. More than two-thirds of the world’s 3.67 billion payment cards circulate abroad. This global shopping spree has turned Visa and MasterCard into Wall Street wonders: Visa completed the largest stock offering in American history in March, and MasterCard’s shares have risen almost 500 percent since the company went public in 2006. Their real opportunities for higher profits lie abroad. The card issuers make their money by collecting a fee on each card and a tiny percentage on purchases. (Banks primarily make their profit by charging interest.) In Asia, Latin America and Central Europe, card transaction volume is rising 20 to 30 percent a year, more than twice the growth rate in the United States. But when credit cards are handed out to unsophisticated consumers — as they often are in shopping malls, factories and university campuses in middle-income developing countries — they can pile up debts that can take years to pay off, if they ever are. In South Korea, for instance, a surge of defaults in 2003 set off a national crisis. Now industry experts say they see similar dangers in rapidly growing markets like Turkey and China, where there are more than 100 million cards. While acknowledging the risks, many here argue that the advantages of credit cards outweigh their dangers. Like cellphones, they hasten economic development. They offer convenience to people who might never have had a bank account but whose rising incomes give them the power to buy motorcycles, refrigerators and stereos. By registering transactions, they also shrink the size of the black-market economy, allowing governments to collect taxes they might have missed. The business is lucrative for Turkish banks: profit per card is higher here than in America. That has made the banks attractive to foreign investors. “This is a society that has transformed itself,” said Suzan Sabanci Dincer, scion of one of Turkey’s wealthiest families and the chairwoman of Akbank, a large card issuer here. In 2006, Citigroup bought 20 percent of Akbank — drawn partly, she said, by its credit card franchise. Yet, Turkey — with its stumbles and its tentative recovery — offers a cautionary tale. The Cost of Credit At the upscale Akmerkez mall in Istanbul, the siren call of credit is everywhere. Advertisements posted in the doorways of stores promise bonus points if shoppers pay with a preferred card. Big-ticket items like refrigerators can be paid for over several months, provided the purchase is made with plastic. Turkey’s two biggest card issuers, Yapi Kredi and Garanti, have branches in the shopping mall, with agents busily processing applications. In the anything-goes era before the 2006 law, banks handed out applications to families as they shopped. Cards were issued with only cursory credit checks. That is how Halim Uzel got his first taste of American-style credit. In 1999, two salesmen from a Turkish bank turned up on the floor of the textile factory where he worked, hawking cards. He showed them identification and his cellphone, filled out a one-page form, and in three weeks received a Visa and a MasterCard in the mail. By 2001, Mr. Uzel was deep in debt. Earning the equivalent of $4,360 a year, he had nearly $6,000 in unpaid balances on five credit cards. Seven years later, after borrowing from family, friends and even his boss to meet payments, he finally paid off his cards. “My best years as a young man have been wasted,” said Mr. Uzel, 32, fingering a set of worry beads. “I haven’t had a social life for 10 years. I’ve given the last penny in my pocket to the banks.” Turkish bankers acknowledge there were excesses, but they chalk it up to the times. “Some banks may have gone too far,” said Mehmet Sezgin, the general manager of the card business at Turkey’s second-largest issuer, Garanti. “We were coming out of a crisis in 2001.” Turkey’s economy had nearly collapsed. Banks’ main business of lending to the state was no longer profitable, so they focused on consumer lending. Because many Turks did not have bank accounts, the fastest way to build business was to hand out credit cards. Until then, lending in Turkey had been confined primarily to families. Consumer loans were too expensive or too hard to get, said Ahmet Faruk Aysan, a professor of economics at Bosporus University in Istanbul. The first card, from Diners Club, turned up in Turkey in 1968, followed by American Express. Visa’s arrival accelerated things, by helping set up a system for card payments among banks. Mr. Sezgin opened an office for MasterCard in Istanbul in 1993. In the early days, he said, Visa and MasterCard were featured prominently on the cards. Now, banks here drive the market, and their brand names are most prominent. With loyalty programs and cards tailored to every demographic group, Turkey’s market is a model for foreigners. UniCredit of Italy owns a stake in Yapi Kredi and has used its card expertise in other countries. And Ms. Sabanci says Akbank and Citigroup are talking about marketing a joint card. For Turkey or any fast-growing market, the chilling example of a credit culture run amok is South Korea. Frenzied competition in a deregulated market led to the issuance of 148 million credit cards in a country of 49 million people. Korean banks and industrial conglomerates showered consumers, even high school students, with free, unsolicited cards. They put little effort into credit checks and competed to offer ever bigger cash advances. As consumers took advances on new cards to pay old ones, debt ballooned. In 2003, with default rates soaring to 28 percent, the industry collapsed. The government had to intervene to rescue issuers; the largest was taken over by banks. Korea’s default rate plummeted. Issuers began sharing data about customers and importing Western credit-rating firms’ methods for vetting applicants. “They learned a big lesson,” said Park Chang-gyun, a business professor at Chung-Ang University, referring to credit card companies. “They no longer chase blindly after market share.” Restraining Debt In Turkey, change was prompted by a grim statistic. From 2003 to 2006, consumer groups said, 41 people died because of credit card debt, either through suicide or homicide. In one widely publicized case, a 37-year-old policeman shot himself in the head on an Istanbul street after friends tried to wrest the gun from him. He was depressed over $40,000 in debts. Turkey’s 2006 law capped the monthly interest charged by banks. (Because of inflation, annual rates once topped 100 percent.) The law tied credit limits to a user’s income, doubled minimum payments and stiffened credit checks. Analysts say it has curbed the worst excesses. The amount of credit card debt in default declined to 6.3 percent in March, from a peak of 8 percent in early 2006, according to the Turkish central bank. While that is not excessive by world standards, it is higher than the 5.17 percent rate in the United States. “You still don’t have the kinds of credit information in Turkey that you have in the States,” said David Robertson, publisher of the Nilson Report, which tracks the industry. “So you’re not going to be able to ratchet down the level of bad credit like you can here.” After six years of torrid growth, Turkey’s economy is cooling and political instability is deepening. With double-digit inflation and interest rates at 16.75 percent, maximum monthly interest charges on cards remain high. “This is a very volatile place,” said Ali A. Ertenu, a banker who used to work for Yapi Kredi. “With a global downturn, there could be trouble ahead for credit card customers.” Two years after the reforms, thoughts of suicide still occur to Nazli, a 26-year-old woman struggling to pay off charges her father accumulated on 10 credit cards. (To protect her family’s reputation, she will not say how much the debts are, or give her last name.) Nazli negotiated repayment schedules with the banks. But after she missed a payment, one bank charged interest for the entire repayment period, erasing the progress she had made. “The more you try to pay it back, the bigger the amount grows,” she said. Until that burden is lifted, Nazli cannot even think of being married or taking a vacation. “More than the fear of losing our property would be the shame, in front of our neighbors, of having a collection agent show up on our doorstep,” she said. For Mr. Uzel, climbing out of debt was less about saving his name than reclaiming his life. Until 2005, he kept his head above water by taking cash advances on one card to pay the minimum on the other cards. But then Mr. Uzel married, which meant paying for a party for his bride’s family. “I was still trying to have a normal life,” he said, as his 3-year-old daughter wriggled on his lap. Mr. Uzel finally paid off the banks in April with a loan from his brother-in-law. But a collection agency recently called, demanding $1,058 for unpaid electricity bills. The long ordeal strained his marriage and made him the butt of his friends’ jokes. He says he is partly to blame, and swears that from now on, will only use cash. But Nazim Kaya, the consumer advocate, said American-style credit is here to stay. “We can’t blame American hegemony for this,” he said. “We should learn to use credit cards properly.”
Sebnem Arsu contributed reporting from Istanbul, and Martin Fackler from Seoul. Taşıma KağıtThe Short View: Emerging market carry tradeBy John Authers, Investment Editor The Financial Times, Aug 6, 2008 El superpeso is back. For the first time since 2002, a dollar buys less than 10 Mexican pesos. The last time it was this strong, earning the superpeso nickname, it caused alarm for exporters, who thought it wildly overvalued. But once inflation in the two countries is taken into account, it is more overvalued now, even compared with an inflated 2002 base. Prices have risen more in Mexico. To maintain purchasing power parity, the dollar should have risen by 18.7 per cent since 2002. An overvalued Mexican peso has caused global crises in the past. But this is different, with no official peg, and Mexican policymakers actively trying to stop the overvaluation. Rather, the problem is that Mexican rates have hit 8 per cent, to fight inflation. That attracts “carry traders” looking for currencies with a high yield – a risky game if the currency suddenly depreciates. Other emerging markets, led by Brazil and Turkey, with base rates of 13 and 16.75 per cent respectively, have attracted carry traders for years. Since 2002 (when it was in crisis), Brazil’s real has gained 142 per cent against the dollar. To maintain purchasing parity, the move should have been in the opposite direction, with the dollar gaining 28 per cent. Turkey’s lira, which unlike the real is not fortified by commodity exports, has gained 45.5 per cent against the dollar. To maintain parity, the dollar should have risen 53.7 per cent. The resilience of carry trades is all the stranger as the US dollar is strengthening, near a six-month high against a trade-weighted index. Australia’s dollar, a big carry-trade destination, is also instructive. It has dropped 7 per cent against the US dollar in three weeks, as its central bank signals rates might come down from their current 7.25 per cent. Increasingly, the emerging market carry trade looks like one of the last unburst bubbles. 8月11日 FudalalarFEER hesabıyla dolar 1.32 YTL
Güngör Uras Milliyet, 11.08.2008 Mülkiyeli büyüğüm Cahit Kayra, “Dolar fiyatı 1.15’lerde nasıl tutunuyor? Bunu birileri anlatsa da bilsek“ dedi. Sonra da bir beyit okudu: “Halletmediler bu lugazın (bilmecenin) sırrını kimse / Çok kafile geçti fudaladan (akıllı yazarlardan), ulemadan.” Darbe Modeli‘Türkiye kredi kartında borç tuzağına düşebilir’Ahu Özyurt
Milliyet, 11.08.2008
Türkiye’deki kredi kartı sayısının 38 milyonu, borç miktarının 18 milyar doları aştığına dikkat çeken The New York Times, kredi kartlarının kullanımının yayılmasıyla borç sorununun ağırlaştığını kaydetti ABD’nin önde gelen gazetelerinden The New York Times, pazar günkü sayısında borçlanma ve dünya ekonomisine ayırdığı sayfalarda Türk ekonomisinin büyümesindeki kredi kartı etkisine geniş yer verdi. Yayımlanan makalede, Türkiye’de kredi kart kullanımının önemli ölçüde yayılması ve borçlanan insanların yaşadığı ciddi sorunlar ele alındı. ABD’nin en iyi ihraç ürünü, kart! |
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